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Kyle Larson needs just nine points in Sunday’s finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway to win his third Cup Series championship. Here is how he can clinch, and the narrow path Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin need to steal it.
Larson leads Bell by 67 points and Hamlin by 70. The breakdown below is from Motorsport.com.
How the points work
- A race win is worth 55 points. Second place gets 35, and each spot after that gets one point less, down to one point for 36th through 40th.
- Each stage winner gets 10 points, down to one point for 10th.
- The fastest lap is worth one bonus point.
- That makes 76 the most a driver can score in one race. Every starter gets at least one point.
- Larson holds the tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin.
How Larson clinches
Nine points guarantees Larson the title. He gets there by:
- Finishing 28th or better, no matter what happens in the stages
- Scoring eight stage points, which he can do by finishing third in either stage or seventh in both
- Seven stage points or a 29th-place finish if he also gets the fastest-lap point
What Bell needs
Bell must win the race and score at least 14 of the 20 possible stage points, or 13 plus the fastest-lap point. He is eliminated if he does not finish eighth or better in Stage 1. None of it matters if Larson finishes 28th or better or scores eight stage points.
What Hamlin needs
Hamlin must win the race and score at least 17 stage points, or 16 plus the fastest-lap point. He is out if he does not finish fifth or better in Stage 1. Hamlin has already called his chances “unrealistic,” as Pit This Time reported.
History says Larson is safe
Hamlin’s biggest points gain on Larson in any race this season was 43, at Indianapolis. Bell’s biggest was 46, at Phoenix. Both would need far more on Sunday.
Larson won the last Cup race at Homestead, in March 2025. He drives for Hendrick Motorsports; Bell and Hamlin drive for Joe Gibbs Racing.
The Straight Talk Wireless 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC. Cup practice is Friday at 5:30 p.m. ET and qualifying is Saturday at 2:30 p.m. on truTV.
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