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Denny Hamlin said his chances of catching Kyle Larson for the Cup Series championship are slim with two races left, saying of the math: “It’s highly unlikely.”
Hamlin made the comments on this week’s episode of his Actions Detrimental podcast. He is second in the Chase standings, 73 points behind Larson, after finishing eighth at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday while Larson won.
Hamlin: ‘You gotta win the race’
Asked what the 73-point gap means, Hamlin laid out the numbers.
“If you win the race, it’s 55 points. You gotta get to 75. You gotta win the race. You gotta get… It’s highly unlikely,” he said.
Hamlin agreed he is now racing for wins rather than the title, but said his Joe Gibbs Racing team cannot give up on the championship, since a mechanical problem for Larson could change everything.
What Hamlin needs
A race win is worth 55 points, and a driver can score at most 76 in a race. Larson clinches the title at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday if he leaves with a lead of at least 77 points, as Pit This Time reported. That means Hamlin has to keep Larson from outscoring him by four or more points to take the fight to Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 8.
Christopher Bell is third, 74 points back, and Chase Briscoe is fourth, 79 back.
How Hamlin got here
Hamlin started the 10-race Chase as the regular-season champion. Larson won at World Wide Technology Raceway and Kansas Speedway during the Chase, then won at Talladega for his third win in the eight Chase races so far. Hamlin cut a tire and was caught a lap down after a speeding penalty at Phoenix, then was damaged in the Lap 132 crash at Talladega before rallying to eighth.
Hamlin, 45, is still looking for his first Cup Series title. He finished second in the standings last year after leading 208 laps in the championship race at Phoenix and finishing sixth.
Martinsville is his best shot
Hamlin has six Cup wins at Martinsville, most recently in March 2025. In the spring race this year, he won the pole, swept both stages and led 292 laps before finishing second to Chase Elliott.
The Xfinity 500 is Sunday, November 1, at 2 p.m. ET on NBC from Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia.
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