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Homestead fantasy NASCAR picks start with Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin for Sunday’s Cup Series championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The race starts at 3 p.m. ET Sunday, November 8, on NBC. Homestead is a 1.5-mile track with heavy tire wear, so the best guides are the last Cup race there, in March 2025, and this fall’s races at three other 1.5-mile tracks: Kansas on September 27, Las Vegas on October 4 and Charlotte on October 11.
What the recent 1.5-mile races showed
Larson won at Kansas, leading 235 laps and sweeping both stages. Austin Cindric, Hamlin, Briscoe and Ryan Blaney rounded out the top five.
Briscoe won at Las Vegas, leading 175 laps, ahead of Larson, Tyler Reddick, Cindric and Blaney.
Briscoe won again at Charlotte, beating Christopher Bell by 0.029 seconds. Blaney, Josh Berry and Hamlin completed the top five, and Larson was sixth after leading 97 laps.
In March 2025 at Homestead, Larson won ahead of Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Briscoe and Hamlin.
Analysis: Drivers to start
Kyle Larson. He won the last Homestead race and has finished first, second and sixth in the three recent 1.5-mile races. He is racing for the title, so expect him to run up front but avoid big risks.
Chase Briscoe. Two wins in the last three 1.5-mile races, plus fourth at Kansas and fourth at Homestead in 2025. With the title out of reach, he can race only for the win.
Denny Hamlin. Third at Kansas, fifth at Charlotte and fifth at Homestead in 2025. He needs a win to have any title chance, so he will be aggressive.
Analysis: Solid plays
Christopher Bell. Second at Charlotte, but 23rd at Las Vegas after losing power steering and 29th at Homestead in 2025. High ceiling, real risk.
Ryan Blaney. Top five in all three recent 1.5-mile races: fifth at Kansas, fifth at Las Vegas and third at Charlotte. He led a race-high 124 laps at Homestead in March 2025 before his engine failed.
Tyler Reddick. He won at Homestead in the fall of 2024, was eighth there in 2025 and third at Las Vegas. He was 11th at Kansas after a slow pit stop.
William Byron. He won at Martinsville on Sunday, leading 362 laps, and was sixth at Las Vegas.
Analysis: Sleepers
Austin Cindric. Second at Kansas and fourth at Las Vegas. His Martinsville race ended early, which could keep his price down in salary-cap formats.
Josh Berry. Fourth at Charlotte, a strong result for a driver outside the Chase.
Bubba Wallace. Third at Homestead in March 2025, when he led 56 laps, and eighth at Las Vegas.
Analysis: Drivers to sit
Ty Gibbs. He finished 25th in the last Homestead race.
Joey Logano. He was 10th at Las Vegas, ninth at Charlotte and 14th at Homestead in 2025. He has not been a front-runner on 1.5-mile tracks this fall.
Strategy notes for Sunday
Homestead’s tire wear means drivers who are good on long runs can make up ground late in a run, and laps led can swing quickly. Cup practice is Friday at 5:30 p.m. ET and qualifying is Saturday at 2:30 p.m. on truTV, so check the starting lineup before locking in picks. See the Homestead preview for the weather forecast and title scenarios.
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